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It is time to invest in the skills for quantum computing revolution
迎接量子计算时代
No wonder quantum computing has become the subject of such hype. Machines that harness the
weirdness of quantum mechanics are so alien — and promise such massive theoretical leaps in
performance — that it is easy to believe nothing will be the same again.
量子计算成为炒作对象并不奇怪。驾驭量子力学神秘力量的机器是如此不可思议——其承诺的
理论上的性能飞跃是如此巨大——让人很容易相信一切将不再一样。
Full-scale quantum machines are probably many years away. But in the meantime, a “good enough”
form of the technology — not revolutionary but promising significant advances for some
applications — is on the horizon. The world will not change overnight, but development timetables
already show practical quantum machines arriving much sooner than seemed likely only a short time
ago.
完全的量子计算机很可能还是很多年以后的事物。但与此同时，这种技术的某种“足够好”的形
态——不是革命性的，但有望给某些应用场合带来重大进展——已初露端倪。世界不会在一夜
之间改变，但从研发进度表已能看到，实用量子机器的到来可能远远早于不久前的预想。
Computers made up of quantum bits (or qubits) that can be in two states at once, or “entangled” to
act in unison, could enable computers that are a million times or more faster than current machines.
On a large enough scale, they may crack the world’s hardest problems.
量子比特(qubit)可以同时处于两种状态，即“纠缠”在一起一致行动，由它们组成的计算机可以
将运算速度提高到当前机器的 100 万倍以上。如果规模足够大，它们或许能破解世界上最难的
问题。
But the first, limited products of this technology have emerged from the research labs. Take the
rudimentary quantum system that IBM has made available, free of charge, over the internet for the
past two years. More than 80,000 people have now run experiments on the system — a huge number,
particularly since trying out even the most basic routine means learning a new form of programming.
但是，这种技术的首批功能有限产品已在实验室里诞生。如 IBM 过去两年在互联网上免费提
供的初步量子计算系统。迄今已有逾 8 万人在该系统上进行试验，这是一个庞大的数字，尤其
是考虑到即使想进行最基本的运算也要掌握一套新的编程方式。
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Arvind Krishna, director of IBM Research, says the willingness of so many to dip their toe in the
quantum water shows that programmers are “frustrated by the limitations of regular computing”.
Perhaps — or maybe it just shows the high level of curiosity around a breakthrough technology.
Either way, it is a sign of massed human brain power waiting to carry the field forward.
IBM 研究院(IBM Research)院长阿尔温德•克里希纳(Arvind Krishna)表示，这么多人愿意试水量
子计算领域，说明程序员们“对常规计算的局限性感到沮丧”。或许如此，亦或是这仅仅说明了
人们对突破性技术的高度好奇。无论如何，这是一个迹象，显示人类的大量脑力等待着推进该
领域。
Three factors are likely to determine whether this can become a practical technology in the near term.
One is the length of time a qubit can maintain a quantum state, known as its coherence time. The
longer it can hold this “superposition” — when the bit represents both a 1 and a 0 at the same time
— the more steps in a programme it can handle and, therefore, the more complex the calculation.
有三个因素可能决定量子计算能否在短期内成为一项实用技术。一是量子比特能够维持量子态
的时间长度，称为量子比特相干时间。其维持“叠加态”（量子比特同时代表 1 和 0）时间越长，
它能够处理的程序步骤就越多，因而可以进行的计算就越复杂。
IBM, which has been at the forefront of trying to push the technology into practical computing
systems, has lifted the time to 100 microseconds. Mr Krishna predicts it will reach a millisecond — a
tenfold improvement — within five years, enough to support a computer that can take on problems
beyond the reach of today’s “classical” machines.
IBM 率先努力将量子技术引入实用计算系统，它将量子比特相干时间提高到了 100 微秒。克
里希纳预测，5 年内它将达到毫秒级——提高 10 倍——足以支持一台能够解决当今“经典”机
器解决不了的问题的计算机。
The second key factor is the number of qubits that can be linked together in a quantum system. From
seven in 2016, IBM lifted the number to 15 last year and expects to release a 50-qubit system to
clients this year.
第二个关键因素是可以在量子系统中连接在一起的量子比特的数量。IBM 已从 2016 年的 7 个
增加到去年的 15 个，预计今年将会向客户发布 50 量子比特的系统。
The third factor is more of a wild card. Quantum systems are error prone: as qubits fall out of
coherence, information is lost. Many experts expect that 1,000 or more extra qubits will be needed to
correct for the errors of a single “logical qubit” that can be used to solve problems.
第三个因素更难以把握。量子系统容易出错：当量子比特失去相干性时，信息就会丢失。许多
专家预计，需要 1000 个或以上的额外量子比特，来纠正可被用于解决问题的单个“逻辑量子比
特”的差错。
Mr Krishna, however, maintains that there is a class of problems that does not require the kind of
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infallible logic we expect from today’s precise, but far more limited, computers. Simulations and risk
analyses are probabilistic in nature, he says, making them “quite resistant to errors”. He estimates
that quantum systems will be useful for taking on problems like these once their error rate falls to 1
per cent. It is already below 10 per cent.
然而，克里希纳认为，有一类问题并不需要我们期望从当今精确（但更为有限）的计算机获得
的那种万无一失的逻辑。他说，模拟和风险分析在本质上是概率性的，这使得它们“对差错具
有相当高的耐受力”。他估计，一旦错误率降至 1%，量子系统对于处理这类问题将会非常有用。
现在错误率已经低于 10%。
If progress on all these axes proceeds at the pace it has in the past two to three years, then the next
five years should bring “quantum advantage” — the point when it becomes commercially viable to
invest in programming a quantum system to tackle some classes of problem. It is no surprise banks
are leading the charge, with companies involved in materials science. Using quantum systems to
model molecules could reap early dividends in battery development or in discovering new alloys,
says Mr Krishna.
如果所有这些轴线上的进展都以过去两、三年的那种速度推进，那么今后 5 年应该会带来“量
子优势”——投资于编程量子系统来解决某些类别的问题在商业上变得可行。并不令人意外的
是，银行正在引领这一努力，携手从事材料科学的企业。克里希纳说，使用量子系统进行分子
建模，有望在电池开发或发现新合金方面获得早期红利。
What lies beyond this first phase of practical quantum computing is less clear. It may be possible to
engineer systems with dozens or hundreds of qubits — but getting into the thousands will be
challenging, not least because of the need for error correction. It is not even clear what the best
building blocks will be for more advanced quantum systems. The superconducting technology most
commonly used to make today’s qubits could be overtaken by one of a number of alternatives
currently in the labs.And a whole new field of computer programming needs to be invented.
目前还不太清楚实用量子计算第一阶段以后的事情。对几十甚至数百量子比特的系统进行工程
设计是可能的，但设计数千个将具有挑战性，尤其是因为需要纠错。现在甚至还不清楚，对于
更先进的量子系统，最好的构建模块是什么。最常用于制造今日量子比特的超导技术，可能会
被目前实验室中的替代方法之一取代。此外还需要发明一个全新的计算机编程领域。
This suggests that the full quantum revolution is years away. But for companies in the fields that will
be affected first, the time to start investing in developing the skills needed for the quantum computer
era is already here.
这似乎表明，完全的量子革命离我们还很远。但对于那些将会首先受到影响的领域里的公司来
说，是时候开始投资于发展量子计算机时代所需的技能。